June 15-16

What a gorgeous day!  We will have more days like this over the forecast period...but we have some serious weather to discuss first.  Tuesday - there is a MARGINAL threat for severe weather over the northern 2/3 of the state in the afternoon and early evening.  The more I look at data, the less concerned I am about widespread storms, let alone severe storms.  A couple of cells could have strong wind.  Again, the more I look at data, the more concerned I am for Wednesday night into the overnight.  (Timing still isn't 100%)  With a warm front lifting in the mid afternoon, humidity levels are going to surge.  We will go from dew points in the 50's in the morning to potentially the mid 70's.  Shear is going to be impressive at every level of the atmosphere where weather takes place. (Troposphere)   Every form of severe weather is possible -- however with this kind of set up I am growing more concerned about tornadoes.  I'm not AS worried about the number, but I am growing concerned about the strength of any tornado that forms.  We may have multiple strong, long lasting tornadoes.   Based on data right now, I think the SPC has the ENHANCED AREAS well defined.   It may expand a little over eastern IN, and I do think a MODERATE risk will be added, most likely over portions of Illinois.   After any leftovers get out of here Thursday morning, I am not seeing any additional severe weather risks in the forecast period.  I don't believe right now Sunday will offer anything strong.  Nicer, quieter -- cooler and less humid days are on the horizon.  I am not seeing excessively hot temperatures in the short or medium range.