July 3-4

All Extreme Heat Warnings will be replaced by Heat Advisories for the holiday.  Temperatures will be maybe a degree or two cooler...heat indices will run from 1-5 degrees cooler.  It won't be overly noticeable.  There were storms today that ended up affecting about 20% of the state.   Anything tonight after 8 pm will be scattered over mostly the northern zones, with a severe wind threat.  Risk lasts until 2/3 am.  An additional thunderstorm watch is possible.  FULL DISCLOSURE:  Model data isn't doing a very good job with storm timing or placement.  I participated in a conference call with NOAA earlier today and someone asked about weather balloon launches.  They are down, and especially from around here into the Rocky Mountain states.  That has a direct reflection on the data we see.  Ever heard the phrase, garbage in/garbage out?  It is very true...  For the 4th, it really looks like we will see some storms from late morning into early afternoon --- then a break --- then more storms sometime between 5-9/5-10.  Clearly this isn't good news for anyone hoping to view or launch fireworks.  I have some hope that we can get storms out before 10, but not likely statewide.  I AM CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH ON RADAR during the time period fireworks would begin.   Where is the big question, and there isn't any solid answer.  We will have to watch radars between 5-7 pm to anticipate where storms should be between 9-10.  I do think there will be a SLIGHT RISK ADDED -- probably over the northern half of the state for Saturday late day/evening.  Personally, I think if any displays are postponed tomorrow, next weekend will offer better chances than Sunday night.   We will begin to see a VERY VERY SLIGHT decline in temperatures from Sunday through Thursday along with a slight downtick in dew points.   Daily scattered to widely scattered storm chances are present Mon-Wed with a general to marginal severe risk.  Thursday looks to have the best storm chances with a severe threat before MUCH MORE REFRESHING AIR MOVES IN.  Friday through at least Tuesday (10th-14th) are looking INCREDIBLE!!!