May 6-7

The new drought monitor comes out on Thursday.  I suspect we will see improvements over southwest...the only area that was under drought classification last week.  I continue to maintain there are areas in the "all clear" that are dry...maybe abnormally dry.  There are rain chances in the forecasts, but widespread heavy rain isn't looking overly likely.  Data tells me today to include rain chances at any point Sunday.  Today and tomorrow I am going to give you a snapshot of the next 9 months!  Today -- precipitation.  I think for most areas, May is going to end up wetter than normal...meaningful rain is going to come in surges, like Monday-Tuesday.  This is the wettest start to May overall in 9 years.  I believe we see more in the way of substantial rainfall between the 21st and 27/28th with a severe threat .  Although my gut is telling me to be on alert for oncoming drought conditions, the data doesn't agree.  June, July, August and September look wetter than normal as we feel the affects transitioning from neutral conditions to El Nino.   There should be a period in August...mid to late....where we may not see much rain at all.  We should really feel the effects of El Nino between October and February.  Expect below normal precipitation, including snow.  I'd be expecting about 1/3 the amount of snow this winter ahead.  3"+ snows may be hard to come by, and 6"+ snowfalls are unlikely.  We would need to be mindful that ice chances would be higher in conditions like what looks likely.