April 22-23

I'm not making many changes to the next 11 days outlook.  We have rain in the forecast many days over the next week.  The only days where widespread rain looks likely are Friday and Monday.  We need to watch Tuesday and next Thursday for a severe potential.  Data questions surround next week.  If a couple of low pressure systems track to our north, severe potential exists Monday and Thursday.  If it tracks south, we just end up with rain with isolated thunder.  We need rain.  I am afraid the drought monitor tomorrow is going to show more than 36.4% of the state in abnormally dry conditions.  Enjoy the warmth over the next week!  A significant, but not long lasting pattern change is coming just in time to flip the calendar to May.  A Canadian High will sink southward, returning us to mid spring temperature levels.  While I am not seeing killing freezes on a widespread basis, frost is likely multiple mornings over the first week of May.  We will warm in time...May 18-26 is looking very warm, if not hot.  Our first widespread 90+ degree days should happen in this time period, if not a little earlier.  Early and mid May are still looking dry overall...not bare bones dry.  I think the last stretch of May will be much more active....but a good sign -- we may be able to keep the drier streak through Memorial Day weekend!  I will keep an eye on this, as I know some of you enjoy outdoor time (and the race) that weekend!