May 16-17

Short term model guidance isn't handling current conditions well at all.  There is a warm front that stayed south (expected to lift further north than it did)  that did fire up some storms southern half,  but there is a temperature inversion causing a cap over a large portion of the state.  The only noticeable change many of us have felt and seen since rain and storms left earlier is the increase in dew points....and those are here for a while.  Sunday looks rain free, but muggy.  There are storm chances Monday and Tuesday -- with a severe threat. (assuming there isn't another cap in place). Timing looks to be afternoon/evening/maybe early overnight.  I believe Tuesday will have the bigger threats.  We get a break for Wednesday and Thursday - cooler, dry and lower humidity levels.  Doing some good, hard, old style forecasting....I am making some changes for the holiday weekend.  I am going to keep some chance for rain in the forecast almost daily.  From doing all the legwork, I am not sure any model has the right idea.  We may not get the southern jet stream far to our north....a ridge over the southwest may not form quickly enough.  I am moderating the temperatures for now.  I will evaluate this daily and let you know if any changes need made.  No, we aren't looking at a repeat of race weekend 1992 -- where temperatures started in the 40's and barely got into the 50's for some -- but we may not be looking at 90's either.  I do think the long weekend looks humid, with some rain/storm chances.