July 20-21

I am making some changes in the short term forecast -- but long range overall thoughts remain the same.  We do look to end July and open August cooler (keeping in mind it IS summer) and drier.  The cool to seasonal feel with less humidity will continue until about mid month before we turn the heat up, increase the dew points and ramp up storm chances.  I believe data will begin to hone in on that for the second half of August.  In the near range, data today wants to weaken storms considerably overnight over the northern half of the state.  This is in large part to the smoky skies.  I will keep in a small chance for a thunderstorm overnight for areas north of I-70, but the odds sure look lower.  Don't be shocked if you hear thunder overnight.  Storms will look to develop around or just north of I-70 where outflow boundaries reside as storms fade.  There is a chance for strong to severe storms especially southern half of the state before noon to 1 pm.  Anything after 1 pm looks very scattered.  REFRESHING AIR moves in for Wednesday and Thursday (I'm betting somewhere rural sees a 49 for a low Friday morning!) - and Friday looks good as well - just a bit warmer.   I am removing the rain chances for Saturday, because coverage look less than 10%.  I am leaving "ring of fire" storm prospects in for Saturday night through Tuesday as heat and humidity increases.  Severe storms are possible, especially next Tuesday (28th).  We should look to really cool down (cooler air planting some roots) by next Wednesday.  KEEP IN MIND -- COOLER IS A RELATIVE TERM!