October 11-12

BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST!   First -- looking rainfall over from the remains of Isaias in Indiana --- hardly worth a mention.  The storm broke apart much faster than expected...bringing many of us a big fat 0".  All traces of the once CAT-2 hurricane are out of here.  We are left with clear skies and because of how this all shook down, we have a high pressure system to our south that is going to pump in seasonally hot air that will last 2 days.  There are still some pieces of guidance that want to keep us a hair cooler, but looking at the strength of the high, dry soil, and a strong middle level wind I DO think will bring record breaking temperatures to a large portion of the state both Monday and Tuesday.  Thankfully - IT IS MID-OCTOBER.  That said, there will be temperatures from 85-91 degrees.  We will have a couple of nights in the 60's too...again, this shouldn't be happening!   For those that are over this kind of heat (like me), I sincerely apologize.  Had we gotten more rain from Isaias...had it stuck together longer, we wouldn't be this hot.  THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST of 80+ heat for the year...finally!  We are far from done though with 70's.  I'm not pleased with how guidance has handled things of late.  I pray this isn't a sign of what's to come.  What was once Hurricane Rachel in the Pacific is now over the Rockies.  This rain will move in Tuesday night and Wednesday.  We will have a series of fronts that move in this week, each bringing a chance for rain and thunderstorms.   What HAD been looking like a strong cold front bringing in an early brand of Canadian/Arctic like air around the 21st/22nd NOW LOOKS TO COME IN FRIDAY NIGHT.  I AM MOVING OUR FROST/LIGHT FREEZE CHANCES UP -- the mornings of the 17th-19th look frosty!  The European Model is literally the only model still holding on to that 21st/22nd time frame.  I will keep watching.  We will warm back up into the 60's and 70's at the end of the forecast period.   I am leaving the 12th day in the forecast period to signify the changes in timing/temperatures.