August 15-16

We are all weather weary.  Even if you haven't been hard hit by wind, hail or flooding rainfall, you have to be tired as well.  I know many are fortunate, even if you had 6"-16" of rainfall or severe wind.  For example, in my community not EVERY home, business and street is flooded.  However, our hearts are heavy because of the weight Mother Nature has put on so many of our neighbors.  We need and deserve a break, and a break is coming.   August floods like this are incredibly rare.  Statewide we average around 3" of rain in August.  Most of the time, this comes in small amounts.  To get flooding after rainfall where MANY spots have seen over 10" of rain in a few days requires one of two types of weather.  The more rare is a leftover tropical system moving and parking overhead.  Those can deliver from 3"-6" of rain over a couple of days.   The more common, but still rare, is what we have experienced and that's storm complexes riding around a hot dome to our southwest.   Ridge runner complexes aren't uncommon.  The number of complexes....the severity and the amount of rainfall with these is almost unheard of.  What we have seen is more common in March or April...or November...not August.  We have to get through Sunday night before we can all breathe easier.  There will be scattered showers and downpours anytime because it is just so darn humid.  THE BEST chance for widespread heavier rain with thunderstorms is from the overnight into Sunday morning and then again later Sunday afternoon and evening.  There is a severe threat.  Rainfall amounts should range from 0 or next to nothing to 2"+   Like every other rain this week, it will depend on how slow or fast these storms move.  There is plenty of moisture to work with!  There are additional storm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening which may be severe.  However, these should move quickly so flooding rainfall isn't likely.  MOST of the forecast is DRY with pleasant to cool temperatures and lower humidity levels.  We will need to watch for fog as a different air mass moves in!  There is a lot of water to evaporate and a cooler air mass with a wet, warm ground spells fog!   Just beyond the forecast period, we turn what should be our last heat wave with 90's of the year...that should take us to Labor Day weekend!