September 15-16

I am making some changes to the forecast for the rest of the week.  Let me explain why.  There have been a lot of tropical systems in the Pacific.  There are storms that have hit areas of the Bearing Straight and Alaska.  There is now ridging that is forming.  Normally when Alaska goes warm, we end up with drier and cooler air (or in the winter, cold air).  There WILL be cooler air.  The question right now is, how far south will the cooler air initially make it?  A resurgent, late season hot dome is also sticking around southwest of us.   There will be a tight temperature gradient from north to south - over a fairly short distance.  Kalamazoo Michigan may be in the 50's/60's during the day this weekend while Carbondale Illinois could crack 100 degrees.  The question is and will remain -- what does this mean for Indiana, especially the northern half of the state!?  FOR NOW, there is enough model agreement to suggest that the boundary between seasonally chilly air and very hot temperatures will end up somewhere over Indiana.  I am making adjustments to temperatures with full disclosure -- THIS MAY CHANGE!    At least some rain/storm chances for some areas are present for the next week.  I think there could be isolated severe risks Wednesday and Thursday very early am -- than again at night.  I see no wash out rainfall events...no all day rains.  We need all the rain we can get before next Tuesday!  I still see below to much below normal rainfall from around the 23rd of September through at least October 18-20th.