June 16-17

The entire weather story is about storms Wednesday and Wednesday night.  After Thursday morning, we have overall quiet weather until we get to the end of next week, with a chance for run of the mill thunderstorms for Father's Day/opening of true summer.  Wednesday will be a high impact day.  We have a lot going on in the atmosphere -- there will be a complex of leftover storms moving in late morning/early afternoon.  We have a warm front that will be pushing north/northeastward.  If that front interacts with these storms, they could turn severe in the 12-4 pm timeframe - mostly 40 miles either side of I-70.  The main threat looks to come in during the evening, lasting into the late evening/early overnight.  I am timing 7 pm eastern over the west counties....8:30-10 over the middle and 11 pm or so over the eastern counties.  Dew points will surge into the low to middle 70's -- a south wind (strong at that) at the surface will interact with a west wind (100 mph) in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, creating spin.  I do believe any storm that forms in the evening has the potential to rotate.  There will be a low cloud base, plenty of lift and buoyancy - moisture will not be an issue...  The potential for winds over 80 mph, hail to baseball size, tornadoes ranging from short/weak to destructive/long tracked (EF-0 to EF-4) is very real.  In addition, a lot of cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain will help to make Wednesday evening/night dangerous to potentially life threatening.  I don't say that to scare you...I say this because it is how I see it.  Will we see an upgrade to a HIGH RISK for a portion of the state?  I think so...but at the end of the day, it is like discussing a winter storm bringing a foot of snow and strong winds.  Blizzard or not?  It doesn't matter...  Whether you are in the current ENHANCED RISK....MODERATE RISK....or get an upgrade to a HIGH RISK....the threats are pretty much there regardless.   YOU WILL WANT TO PLAN AHEAD....consider postponing any events after 6 pm if at all possible...and be ready to throw your severe weather action plan into effect.  I see little room for "bust potential".  THE GOOD NEWS...like last Thursday, warnings should come with 20-40 minutes notice.